Winning Women’s Votes: Dotty Lynch and the Role of Gender in American Political Polling

Abstract

As the chief pollster for Gary Hart’s 1984 race for the Oval Office, Dorothea “Dotty” Lynch became the first female pollster to head the polling unit for a presidential campaign. Lynch’s work reconstructed how the field of political consulting regarded the role of women in elections by making women’s issues a central focus of a US presidential candidate’s campaign strategy, and by actively recruiting more women to work on presidential campaigns. Her work is also significant for the contribution she made to help explain why the gender gap played a critical role in American politics and elections.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Diane Alters, “Women, Strong at the Polls, Still Lag in Campaign Leverage,” Boston Globe, May 26, 1987.

2 Center for American Women and Politics, “Gender Differences in Voter Turnout” (Rutgers University: Eagleton Institute of Politics, 2022), https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/voters/gender-differences-voter-turnout#GGN.

3 Alters, “Women, Strong at the Polls, Still Lag in Campaign Leverage.”

4 “Resolution Honoring the Life and Career of Dorothea ‘Dotty’ Jean Lynch” (Democratic National Committee, August 23, 2014). Private Collection.

5 Paul Vitello, “Dotty Lynch, Pollster Who Saw the Gender Gap, Is Dead at 69,” New York Times, August 11, 2014.

6 “Women Voters and the 1984 Election” (Hart Campaign for President, n.d.).

7 Joan W. Scott, “Gender: A Useful Category of Historical Analysis,” in Gender and the Politics of History (New York: Columbia Univeristy Press, 1988), https://doi.org/10.7312/scot91266-004.

8 Dotty Lynch, “As Women’s Very Real Power at the Polls Becomes Visible,” New York Times, December 29, 1982.

9 Adam Bernstein, “Dotty Lynch, Political Pollster Who Later Worked for CBS News, Dies at 69,” Washington Post, August 11, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/dotty-lynch-political-pollster-who-later-worked-for-cbs-news-dies-at-69/2014/08/11/2aed8ffc-1740-11e4-9349-84d4a85be981_story.html.

10 Matt Bai, All the Truth is Out: The Week Politics Went Tabloid (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2014), 7.

11 Sarah Igo, The Averaged American: Surveys, Citizens, and the Making of a Mass Public (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2007), 27.

12 Dennis W. Johnson, Democracy for Hire: A History of American Political Consulting (Oxford University Press, 2017), 296.

13 Extensive scholarship exists about the founding roles played by men like Lee, Lasker, Barton, and Bernays in the history of advertising, public relations, and political consulting. Adverting pioneer Lee was considered the forerunner of political image enhancement based on the work he did for John D. Rockefeller following the violent labor strike in Colorado known as the Ludlow Massacre. Lasker, of the advertising firm Lord & Thomas, used the “reason why” consumers should buy this product strategy to position Warren Harding as an average citizen. Barton, along with Roy Durstine and Alex Osborn, formed an advertising agency in 1919 bearing their names. Barton boosted the image of Massachusetts governor Calvin Coolidge, starting with a positive biography of Coolidge published in Collier’s magazine. Publicist Bernays made significant contributions to political consulting through his use of publicity events and early adoption of survey research. See Johnson, Democracy for Hire, 15-17.

14 See Alice Kessler-Harris, Out to Work: A History of Wage-Earning Women in the United States (New York: Oxford University Press, 1982), 217-272 for an understanding of how the changing nature of household work in the 1920s created new opportunities for working women in the Depression era.

15 Johnson, Democracy for Hire, 296.

16 For an explanation of how Western women’s movements expanded significantly after the 1960s, see Estelle B. Freedman, No Turning Back: The History of Feminism and the Future of Women (New York: Ballantine Books, 2002).

17 Johnson, Democracy for Hire, 138.

18 A thematic approach to US women’s history focused on issues that influenced the culture Lynch was raised in, including labor, sexuality, reproduction, race, religion, and women’s activism, can be found in Linda K. Kerber, Jane Sherron De Hart, Cornelia Hughes Dayton, and Judy Tzu-Chun Wu, eds., Women’s America: Refocusing the Past (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016). Other useful sources include Dorothy Sue Cobble, The Other Women’s Movement: Workplace Justice and Social Rights in Modern America (New York: Princeton University Press, 2004); Vicki L. Ruiz and Ellen Carol DuBois, eds., Unequal Sisters: An Inclusive Reader in U.S. Women’s History, Fourth Edition (New York: Routledge, 2008); Stephanie Gilmore, Groundswell: Grassroots Feminist Activism in Postwar America (New York: Routledge, 2013); Betty Friedan, The Feminine Mystique (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1963).

19 Dotty Lynch, “Politics and Polling,” in American Catholics and Civic Engagement, ed. Margaret O’Brien Steinfels (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2004), 166–71.

20 William C. Harris, Lincoln’s Rise to the Presidency (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2007), 225.

21 Seymour P. Lachman and Robert Polner, The Man Who Saved New York: Hugh Carey and the Great Fiscal Crisis of 1975 (New York: State University of New York Press, 2010), 40.

22 Felicia Fitzpatrick Lucey, Interview with Felicia Fitzpatrick Lucey, Phone, September 3, 2015.

23 Betty Boyd Caroli, “Jacqueline (Lee Bouvier) Kennedy (Onassis),” in American First Ladies: Their Lives and Their Legacy, ed. Lewis L. Gould (New York: Garland Publishing, 1996), 481–87.

24 Anne Manierre Erickson, Interview with Anne Manierre Erickson, Phone, September 13, 2015.

25 R. Morgan Downey, Interview with R. Morgan Downey, May 10, 2015.

26 Bernstein, “Dotty Lynch, Political Pollster,” Washington Post, August 11, 2014.

27 Randy Carey McManus, Interview with Randy Carey McManus, September 1, 2015.

28 Amy Dickinson, “Weddings/Celebrations: Vows; Dotty Lynch and Morgan Downey,” New York Times, February 9, 2003.

29 Paul Vitello, “Dotty Lynch, Pollster Who Saw the Gender Gap, Is Dead at 69,” New York Times, August 11, 2014.

30 Christina Wolbrecht and J. Kevin Corder, A Century of Votes for Women: American Elections since Suffrage (UK: Cambridge University Press, 2020), 3.

31 Julie Dolan, Melissa M. Deckman, and Michele L. Swers, Women and Politics: Paths to Power and Political Influence, Updated Third Edition (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2017), 59–60.

32 Wolbrecht and Corder, A Century of Votes for Women, 107.

33 Sarah Igo, The Averaged American, 137-138.

34 Wolbrecht and Corder, A Century of Votes for Women, 158.

35 Dotty Lynch, “Democratic Candidate Choices: Election of 1972,” n.d., Private Collection.

36 Rebecca Bohanan, “12 Women Who Ran for President Before Hillary,” The Huffington Post, July 25, 2016, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/12-women-who-ran-for-pres_b_11172668.

37 Dotty Lynch, “Agenda 6:30 p.m. Meeting,” n.d., Private Collection.

38 Ethel Klein, Gender Politics: From Consciousness to Mass Politics, illustrated, reprint ed. (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1984).

39 “McGovern Shriver Paid Political Announcement on Jobs,” 1972, George S. McGovern Papers 1939-1984, Promotion File 1971-75, Princeton University Library, Princeton, NJ, https://findingaids.princeton.edu/catalog/MC181_c01198.

40 Klein, Gender Politics, 145.

41 Klein, Gender Politics, 145.

42 Dotty Lynch, “Memo Analyzing July 1971 Poll,” n.d., Private Collection.

43 Adam Clymer, “Carter’s Standing Drops to New Low in Times CBS Poll,” New York Times, June 10, 1979.

44 Eleanor Clift, “Kennedy Enters 1980 Presidential Race,” Newsweek, September 23, 1979.

45 David Shribman, “Many Hart Aides Date from McGovern Period,” New York Times, March 19, 1984.

46 Lisa M. Burns, First Ladies and the Fourth Estate: Press Framing of Presidential Wives (DeKalb, Northern Illinois University Press, 2008), 102.

47 “Women on Campaign Staff,” n.d., Edward M. Kennedy Campaign Files 1978 - 1982, Nancy F. Korman Personal Papers, Women’s Advisory Committee Correspondence: 1980, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, Boston, MA, https://www.jfklibrary.org/asset-viewer/archives/NFKPP/002/NFKPP-002-002.

48 Dennis W. Johnson, Democracy for Hire, 138, 296.

49 Nancy E. Marion, A History of Federal Crime Control Initiatives, 1960-1963, Praeger Series in Criminology & Crime Control Policy (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1994), 69–101.

50 Edward M. Kennedy, Address to the Democratic National Convention (New York City, New York, 1980), Edward M. Kennedy Speeches, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, Boston, MA, https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/the-kennedy-family/edward-m-kennedy/edward-m-kennedy-speeches/address-to-the-democratic-national-convention-new-york-city-august-12-1980.

51 Dotty Lynch, “Crime,” n.d., Private Collection.

52 Dotty Lynch, “Women and Risks,” January 3, 1980, Private Collection.

53 Dotty Lynch, “Involving the Family,” n.d., Private Collection.

54 T. R. Reid, “Joan Kennedy Silences Reporters,” Washington Post, January 19, 1980.

55 “Jean Kennedy Smith Schedule,” May 31, 1980, Women’s Advisory Committee Correspondence, 1980, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, Boston, MA, https://www.jfklibrary.org/asset-viewer/archives/NFKPP/002/NFKPP-002-002.

56 Joanne Howes, “Update on Women’s Strategy: Some Additional Thoughts,” July 1, 1980, Private Collection.

57 Shelly Cohen, “Less Tea, More Power with Ted,” Boston Herald American, January 13, 1980, Edward M. Kennedy Campaign Files 1978-1982, Nancy F. Korman Personal Papers, Women’s Advisory Committee Correspondence: 1980, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, Boston, MA.

58 David S. Broder, “Kennedy Ends Fight for Nomination,” Washington Post, August 12, 1980.

59 Charles T. Manatt, “Democrats Poll Report” (Washington, DC: Democratic National Committee, November 1981), 4.

60 Dolan, Deckman, and Swers, Women and Politics: Paths to Power and Political Influence, 61.

61 Barbara C. Burrell, “Gender, Presidential Elections and Public Policy: Making Women’s Votes Matter,” Journal of Women, Politics & Policy 27, no. 1-2 (October 13, 2005): 44.

62 Maureen Dowd, “Other Side of ‘Gender Gap’: Reagan Seen as Man’s Man,” New York Times, September 17, 1984.

63 Lynch, “As Women’s Very Real Power at the Polls Becomes Visible.”

64 Dotty Lynch and Peter D. Hart, “A Survey of the Political Climate in America” (Lynch Research, Inc. and Peter D. Hart Research Associates, September 1983), 4, Private Collection.

65 “Democrats Poll Report” (Democratic National Committee, November 1981), 4, Private Collection.

66 Lois Romano, “Lynch: Breaking into a ‘Man’s Business,’” Washington Post, January 14, 1984.

67 Dotty Lynch, “Women Voters and the 1984 Election,” January 10, 1983, Private Collection.

68 Lynch, “Women Voters and the 1984 Election.”

69 Gary Hart, “Statement of Candidacy,” 4president.org, February 17, 1983, http://www.4president.org/speeches/1984/garyhart1984announcement.htm.

70 “Gary Hart for President,” Americans with Hart Campaign Pamphlet, n.d., Private Collection.

71 Diane Eicher, “Women’s Vote Stressed: Lee Hart Details Senator’s Goals for ‘84,” The Denver Post, June 28, 1983.

72 Eicher, “Women’s Vote Stressed.”

73 “Abortion: A Turning Point,” Los Angeles Times, July 4, 1983.

74 Dotty Lynch, “Fundraising Around a ‘Women’s Strategy,’” June 30, 1983, Private Collection.

75 Carol Gilligan, In a Different Voice: Psychological Theory and Women’s Development (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1982), 6.

76 Dotty Lynch, “Specific Strategies,” August 20, 1983, Private Collection.

77 Gary Hart, “Address to the Americans for Democratic Action,” September 24, 1983, Private Collection.

78 Robert A. Webb and Paul Taylor, “Republicans Keep On Adding to the Gender Gap, Washington Post, October 7, 1983.

79 Jane Perlez, “Women, Power and Politics,” New York Times, June 24, 1984.

80 Dotty Lynch, “Campaign Strategy,” October 16, 1983, Private Collection.

81 Martin Schram, “Hart Staff Undergoes Shakeup,” Washington Post, May 18, 1984, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1984/05/18/hart-staff-undergoes-shakeup/608ad6d4-4d68-417c-b077-bcbdc16f8d3e/?utm_term=.735df5877cb4.

82 Dotty Lynch, “Hart Campaign,” May 21, 1984, Private Collection.

83 Bernstein, “Dotty Lynch, Political Pollster,” Washington Post.

84 Dolan, Deckman, and Swers, Women and Politics: Paths to Power and Political Influence, 69.

85 Michael Schudson, The Good Citizen: A History of American Civic Life, illustrated, 1998 ed. (New York, NY: The Free Press, 1998), 8.

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Wendy Melillo

Wendy Melillo is an internationally recognized journalist, educator and media scholar. Her current work examines the influence of journalism and persuasive communication in US history, American government, political campaigns, popular culture, and race relations. For more than a decade, she has worked as a teacher and academic scholar in the Public Communication and Journalism divisions of the School of Communication at American University, in Washington, DC. She is the author of How McGruff and the Crying Indian Changed America (2013), which discusses the compelling—and sometimes controversial—story of the Ad Council and its campaigns that have become part of the nation’s collective memory.