Domestic imperative of the Philippines’ South China Sea policy: personality-driven policymaking and constant shifts between China and the United States

Abstract

This article aims to explain the oscillations of the Philippines’ South China Sea policy vis-à-vis China between accommodation and confrontation from 1991 to 2022. It argues that the Philippines’ personality-driven foreign policymaking was conducive to dramatic shifts in position on the South China Sea issue. The presidential system of government and patronage politics in the Philippines give the presidential inner circles considerable leeway to shape and reshape the country’s foreign policy. Despite being constrained by domestic socio-political conditions at a given time as well as the political and security thinking embedded in its domestic politics, individual Philippine presidents and/or the presidential circles managed the South China Sea issue vis-à-vis China and the United States in particular ways according to their different sets of personal beliefs, professional expertise, and practical experience. This explains why the power transitions in the Philippines often caused major shifts in its management of the South China Sea disputes over time.

Keywords:

• China
• personality-driven policymaking
• South China Sea
• the Philippines
• United States

Acknowledgements

The paper has been conducted since Phuong Ly Nguyen was undertaking her PhD study at the Asia Institute, University of Melbourne. The authors would like to express their gratitude to Dr Dave McRae, the editors and reviewers of the Pacific Review for their thoughtful comments and feedback on the earlier drafts of this paper. Sincere thanks go to all interviewees in the Philippines for sharing their knowledge, thoughts and experiences.

Ethical approval

This research was approved by Committee of Human Research Ethics, Research Ethics and Integrity, The University of Melbourne, ID: 1851135.1.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Interviews with Philippine officials and experts in Manila from October to November 2018. The interviewees asked to not be named.

2 Read also the transcripts of public hearings by Committee on National Defense and Security, Senate of the Philippines, on the AFP Modernization Program, from 1994 to 1995.

3 Interviews with Philippine officials, Manila, October–November 2018. The interviewees asked to not be named.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Phuong Ly Nguyen

Phuong Ly Nguyen is Lecturer at the Faculty of International Politics and Diplomacy, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam. Her research expertise lies in Vietnam’s domestic politics and foreign policy, the Philippines’ foreign relations, the South China Sea, and great powers politics in the Asia-Pacific region.

Sow Keat Tok

Sow Keat Tok is Lecturer at the Asia Institute, The University of Melbourne. His research covers China’s domestic politics and foreign relations, with particular focus on political and economic reforms, central-local relations, policy discourses, and domestic dynamics of China’s foreign policy. He is also a keen follower of international relations in the Asia-Pacific.