Mortal ‘mistakes’, fatal consequences: understanding Nigeria’s mis-targeted counter-insurgency airstrike fatalities

ABSTRACT

Since 2009, the Nigerian military has engaged in counterinsurgency operations against Boko Haram and other extremists groups in Northern Nigeria, making extensive use of airpower. In such operations, the seeming casual and indiscriminate airstrikes have produced unfortunate scale of collateral damage to both civilians and its own personnel. This paper examines Nigeria’s recurring mis-targeted airstrikes against the backdrop of the country’s protracted and problematic COIN operations. The paper argues that such incidents are not necessarily ’a mistake’ or ‘a mishap’, but a reflection of the limitations of airpower capabilities. Going forward, Nigeria’s endeavours at countering insurgency and allied threats need to be systematically repositioned in a manner that guarantees optimal operational efficiency and precision. This requires improvements in combat techniques and technology as well as in command and intelligence capabilities of the forces.

KEYWORDS:

• Air force
• airpower
• airstrikes
• civilian casualties
• counter-insurgency
• military

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. Babatunde-Lawal. “Increasing Nigeria’s Defence Budget.”

2. Chuku, et al., “Growth and Fiscal Consequences.”

3. Abdulrasheed. “Counter-Terrorism Activities and Human Rights Violations.”

4. SB Morgen. ‘’The Week Ahead.”

5. The Cable, December 5, 2023.

6. Human Rights Watch (a). ‘’Nigeria: Satellite Imagery Shows Strikes on Settlement.”

7. Oyewole. ‘’Struck and Killed.”

8. HumAngle. ‘’What Recurring Airstrike Mishaps Mean.”

9. Oyewole. “Struck and Killed;” Mueller. “Air Power.”

10. Oyemole. “Making the Sky Relevant;” Oyewole. “Flying and Bombing.”

11. An example of this is the Maitatsine riots of 1980 and 1985.

12. Ibrahim & Bala. “Civilian=Led Governance.”

13. Okoli & Lenshie. “Beyond Military Might.”

14. Ibid.

15. Institute for Economic and Peace. “Global Terrorism Index,” 2015.

16. Okoli & Lenshie.

17. Ibid.

18. Ibrahim & Bala. “Civilian-Led Governance and Security.”

19. Okoli & Lenshie.

20. Ibrahim & Bala.

21. This claim was rationalized on the bases of the gains made in reclaiming the territories which were previously occupied by the insurgents, particularly in parts of the North East.

22. Okoli & Nwangwu. “Organized Crime-Terror Nexus.”

23. Oyewole. “Struck and Killed.”

24. Ibid.

25. Gray. “Airpower for Strategic Effects.”

26. Beck. “Offensive Airpower.”

27. Ibid., 1.

28. Beck, 9.

29. Mutch and Afzali. “A Hidden War.”

30. Bagheri. “Perhaps Lawful, But Awful.”

31. Olaniyan and Okeke-Uzodike. “When Two Elephants Fight.”

32. Rollins. “Armed Drones.”

33. Ibid.

34. Mutch and Afzali.

35. Okoli and Ugwu. “Of Banditry and Human Rustling.” Also, Okoli. “Panellist’s Notes.”

36. Okoli and Lenshie. “Beyond Military Might.”

37. Abdulrasheed.

38. Thompson. “Mutiny, Desertion and State Response.”

39. Okoli and Lenshie.

40. Ogbonnaya. “Has Counter-Terrorism become a Profitable Business?”

41. Ibid.

42. Okoli and Lenshie; Okoli and Nwangwu.

43. See note 39 above.

44. Zenn. “Chronicling the Boko Haram.”

45. Ikem et al., “Decoding the Massage.”

46. Okoli et al., “Security in the Lake Chad Basin and Sahel.”

47. Oyewole. “Struck and Killed.”

48. See note 39 above

49. Ibid.

50. Ike et al., “Community Perspectives of Terrorism.”

51. Musa. “Military Internal Security Operations in Plateau.”

52. Olusegun. “Defence and Strategy.”

53. Corroborated anecdotes.

54. Oyewole et al., “Wings Over Flies.”

55. Ibid.

56. Aina et al., “Shock and Awe.”

57. Ibid.

58. Oyewole. “Struck and Killed.”

59. Okoli & Ngom. “Banditry and Security Crisis”

60. Ojewale. “The Bandits World.”

61. Okoli & Ngom.

62. Oyewole. “Military Capabilities.”

63. Oyewole. “Making the Sky Relevant;” Oyewole. “Flying and Bombing,” Oyewole et al/”Wings Over Flies.”

64. Oyewole. “Struck and Killed.” Aina et al., “Shock and Awe.” Ojo et al., “Forces of Terror.”

65. Oyewole. “Struck and Killed.”

66. Okoli & Nwangwu.

67. As variously cited in this paper.

68. Oyewole.

69. Human Rights Watch (b). “Attack on Omar Ibn al-Khatab Mosque.”

70. Corroborated anecdotes.

71. SB Morgen.

72. BBC News. Nigeria air strike; Nnodim et al., “Kaduna Village Bombing.”

73. Torelli. Kaduna.

74. Asishana. “Airstrike kills special hunters;” Nasiru. “Children, Women, IDPs.”.

75. See Table 1.

76. This narrative resonates widely with the prevailing popular and social media anecdotes.

77. Ibid.

78. Nigeria’s complex ethno-religious and sectionalist divides often find expression in the official conduct of holders of public trust.

79. See Table 1.

80. Mutschier et al “The Impact of Precision Strike Technology.”

81. Ogbonnaya.

82. Corroborated anecdotes.

83. Ibid.

84. Isamotu. “Excluive: Army carried out the Kaduna Airstrikes against Our Advice”

85. Elumoye. “CDS on Kaduna Bombing.”

86. Dubois et al., “A Concise Theory of Combat.”

87. HumAngle.

88. In 2016, for instance, the Nigerian Air Force and the National Space Agency entered into an agreement to produce guided munitions as well as develop joint capabilities for precision strike.

89. Jamiu. “Nigerian Air Force Bombardments.”

90. Human Rights Watch (b), para 4.

91. SB Morgen.

92. Ibid.

93. A prominent banditry/terrorism field researcher and journalist, based in Nigeria.

94. Jamiu, para 10.

95. Ibid.

96. Jamiu.

97. Dalton. “Improving Civilian Protection in Nigeria.”

98. Ojewale, Onuoha and Mohammed. “Nigeria’s Military Mistakes.”

99. A prominent charismatic Islamic cleric reputed for mediating between bandits and the government in Nigeria.

100. Isamotu and Yaba. “Kaduna Killings.”

101. Gumi. “Christians can’t be Trusted.”

102. Ufuoma. “Nigerian Military Airstrike.”

103. What is considered in this paper is more of the operational challenges.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Al Chukwuma Okoli

Al Chukwuma Okoli (B.Sc., M.Sc., Political Science), holds a Ph.D in Defence and Strategic Studies from Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA). He also holds a Ph.D in History from Federal University of Lafia. Dr Okoli a Reader (Associate Professor) in Political Science at Federal University of Lafia, Nigeria. Dr. Okoli’s research interest revolves mainly around Security Studies. He has consulted for the African Union (AU), UN-Women, Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), Nigeria, Armed Forces Command and Staff College (AFCSC) in Nigeria, and National Open University of Nigeria (NOUN). Dr Okoli successfully examined a doctoral thesis for the Graduate School of Queensland University, Australia in 2020. He is a triple laureate of the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), having attended the Council’s three Institutes (Gender 2018, Higher Education, 2019, Democratic Governance, 2021). Dr Okoli is a member of Amnesty International (AI), a research fellow of IFRA-Nigeria, and a member of CORN-West Africa. He believes in a world governed by liberal knowledge and free thought.

Azeez O. Olaniyan

Azeez O. Olaniyan is a Professor of Political Science and the current Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Federal University, Oye-Ekiti, Nigeria. He was a 2017 recipient of the Social Science Research Council’s individual research grant. Prof Olaniyan has consulted and published widely in aspects of security, governance and conflicts in Nigerian and Africa.

Rasheed T. Ayegbusi

Dr. Rasheed T. Ayegbusi is a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Federal University Oye-Ekiti, Nigeria. His research interest revolves around security and conflict studies.