Transit-oriented development and effective supply on the tenant-occupied multifamily housing market in Washington, DC

ABSTRACT

A range of socioeconomic factors, including income distribution, productivity and land use policies, are thought to influence the development of contemporary multifamily housing markets in the United States. Focusing on Washington, DC, as a case study, we use data from the American Community Survey to assemble socioeconomic panel datasets for the years 2010–2019. Through spatial regression analysis, we explore which socioeconomic measures and land use policies are associated with the effective supply of tenant-occupied multifamily housing. We interpret our findings considering issues such as displacement, lessor habit formation, demographic shifts and the uneven growth of transit-oriented housing in DC's current housing landscape.

KEYWORDS:

• Transit-oriented development
• habit formation
• multifamily housing
• spillovers
• spatial regression modelling
• Washington, DC

JEL:

• R, R3, R31, C, C2, C21, D4, J

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

‘The views and conclusions of the author are personal and do not purport to represent the views of the United States Department of Labor or the United States government or the District of Columbia government.’

Notes

1 We use the following TOD definition: development within a half-mile radius of fixed transit options, such as metro stations, designed to prioritise a high density of residential, commercial and recreational spaces within walkable distance of public transit services (National Academies of Sciences, 2022).

2 The planning areas group geographic areas using similarities in density, physical characteristics of dwellings and public infrastructure. For instance, the ten planning areas can be loosely divided into three typologies: the core (Central Washington), which functions as the central business district (CBD) and major job center mixed with high-density housing; the inner ring areas such as Mid-City that step down in density from the core but still, continue the dense transit/street grid and have a high share of multi-family housing; and the outer ring which has a higher share of single-family homes and commercial corridors providing neighborhood goods and services.

3 This index measures departure from evenness by assessing each census tract’s departure from the racial or ethnic entropy of the whole city (Massey & Denton, 1988).