Time-dependent probabilistic evaluation of rainstorm-induced shallow landslides considering influence of impermeable bedrock

ABSTRACT

A time-dependent probabilistic evaluation method is proposed for assessing the stability of soil slopes during rainstorm events. The method considers multiple failure scenarios, including sliding along the wetting front and shallow soil–rock interface. The application of the method is demonstrated by a typical rainstorm-induced shallow landslide in Zhejiang Province, China. The results indicate that the landslides occurred when the failure probability exceeded a certain level, providing references for real-time landslide warnings. Moreover, the factors influencing the probabilistic results have been investigated. A two-dimensional limit state surface is used to explain the change of slope failure scenarios during the rainfall process, confirming the controlling role of the impermeable bedrock surface. The probabilistic evaluation results using the actual rainfall data can better reflect slope performance via comparing the computed failure probability using idealised rainfall patterns and actual rainfall data. Additionally, the parameter sensitivity analysis shows that the matric suction, the effective cohesion and the effective internal friction angle significantly influence the slope performance during the early stage of rainfall. However, during the later stage of rainfall, the saturated permeability coefficient becomes the most sensitive parameter. The applicability of the proposed method was further verified via three other typical rainstorm-induced shallow landslide cases.

KEYWORDS:

• Rainstorm-induced landslide
• probabilistic evaluation
• time-dependent failure probability
• impermeable soil–rock interface
• Monte Carlo simulation

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This research was financially supported by the Key R&D Project of Zhejiang Province [grant number 2021C03159], the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42277132], the Center for Balance Architecture, Zhejiang University [grant number K-20212721] and the Field Scientific Observation & Research Station of Geological Hazard in Zhejiang, Ministry of Natural Resources, China [grant number ZJDZGCZ-2021].