A decade of the belt and road initiative and its global impact

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a transformative endeavor spearheaded by China to foster infrastructural, economic, and cultural linkages across continents, has entered its second decade with an evolving agenda that embraces both challenges and opportunities. This issue presents a curated collection of scholarly articles that critically examine the evolving landscape of international relations and economic development influenced by this expansive infrastructure project. The assembly of recent scholarship examining the BRI’s multifaceted impacts offers valuable insights into the initiative’s current state and its trajectory. Our editorial introduction synthesizes critical findings from eight illuminating papers that dissect the dynamics of debt strategies, geopolitical challenge, legal systems, infrastructure investment, market integration, financial development, and the ‘soft connectivity’ of rules under the BRI umbrella.

Shuanglin Lin (2024) examines the burgeoning debt burdens among BRI countries, precipitated by massive loans for infrastructure projects. Lin (2024) proposes strategic adjustments in China’s lending practices to prevent potential debt crises, suggesting reducing government loans to B&R countries and restructuring debt, increasing imports from debtor countries. Lin’s critical appraisal of the current debt landscape paves the way for new Chinese strategies to mitigate risks, underscoring the importance of commercial principles, trade expansion, and the encouragement of private investment. This theme of economic policy intertwining with geopolitical strategy is echoed throughout the issue, as each paper investigates different facets of China’s influence on global trade and governance.

Minghao Zhao (2024) provides an incisive analysis of the geopolitical tensions underpinning the BRI, especially the competition between the U.S. and China over the global South. Zhao explores the strategic use of the BRI as a tool for soft connectivity – extending beyond infrastructure to encompass rules, standards, and people-to-people exchanges. However, this soft power strategy is not without its challenges. Zhao highlights the suspicions of the United States, which perceives China’s outreach as a geopolitical maneuver aimed at reducing Western influence among developing nations. The paper underscores the complexity of BRI’s dual role as both a developmental aid and a tool in the broader U.S.-China rivalry, suggesting that China must navigate these dynamics carefully to maintain its relationships in the global South.

Building on the concept of ‘soft connectivity,’ Li Yuan (2024) sets the stage by emphasizing the crucial role of enhancing soft connectivity of rules for high-quality BRI construction. With a forward-looking perspective, Yuan (2024) proposes a comprehensive plan that includes multilateral and bilateral cooperation, engagement with developed and developing countries, and the synergistic role of enterprises and governments. This strategic framework is pivotal in navigating international cooperation and fostering new areas of cooperation on rules and standards, with a more open attitude to strengthen cooperation on rules and standards with developed countries.

Zhijun Gao, Yi Feng, and Wanjun Jiang (2024) highlight how legal environments influence foreign direct investments through three avenues: property protection, dispute settlement, and cross-border transactions cost reduction. In a detailed exploration of legal systems, a comparative study on U.S. and Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa provides a nuanced understanding of how legal origins, customary law, and legal integration influence investment decisions. The intricate legal environment of African nations emerges as a significant determinant of economic engagement, offering a unique perspective on the strategic considerations of foreign investors.

Yongjun Chen and Wenwen Yu (2024) find that China’s foreign infrastructure investments can endogenously drive the improvement of property rights systems in the surrounding areas of the micro-level projects, with the institutional improvement effects mainly occurring during the project initiation and completion phases, and these effects are long-lasting. Their findings suggest a pathway to ethical BRI construction through the lens of integrity and commercialization.

Sufrizul Husseini, Ahmed M Khalid, and Gamini Premaratne (2024) delve into the trade connectivity fostered by the BRI’s infrastructure development. The study uses network analysis to map out trade connectivity changes induced by the BRI, revealing that while Asia and Europe have seen significant benefits, Central Asian and African countries lag behind. This finding points to the need for targeted infrastructure investments in less-connected regions, which could enhance the overall cohesion and economic unity of the BRI countries.

Shu-Kam Lee, Lubanski Lam, and Kai-Yin Woo (2024) provide a granular look at market integration through the lens of purchasing power parity between China and European countries. Their nonparametric approach uncovers nonlinear relationships, indicating a deepening economic entwining between these economies despite political frictions. According to Lee, Lam, and Woo (2024), the results suggest favorable prospects for closer economic cooperation between the two sides and the need for formulation of common policies to pursue an integrated market in the future.

Adding to our exploration, Hang Yu and Jiaqi Zhao (2024) offer a targeted study on Ethiopia, a key country on the Belt and Road path, focusing on the developmental impacts of financial sector inefficiencies. Their investigation into Ethiopia’s underdeveloped financial system reveals significant barriers to the country’s industrialization ambitions, proposing lessons from China’s market-oriented financial reforms and Kenya’s fintech innovations. This paper suggests strategic financial reforms that could catalyze Ethiopia’s economic advancement by diversifying financial services, improving infrastructure, and promoting inclusive financial policies.

Collectively, these papers not only critique the BRI’s current development but also construct a mosaic of interdisciplinary perspectives that illuminate the path ahead. Each paper contributes to a layered understanding of how China’s infrastructural megaproject is redefining economic and political orders. The comprehensive examination not only critiques the initiative’s broad economic impacts but also its deeper institutional and legal implications. By analyzing these diverse dimensions, the special issue encourages a critical reassessment of the BRI’s strategic underpinnings and its long-term global implications.

This thematic exploration serves as an essential scholarly resource for policymakers, academics, and professionals engaged with or affected by the BRI. It provides a robust analytical foundation to anticipate future developments and strategically navigate the complex international landscape shaped by the Belt and Road Initiative. They underscore the imperative of nuanced policymaking that acknowledges the complex interplay of investment, legal systems, and market integration underpinning the BRI’s expansion. The quest for sustainable and equitable growth within this vast initiative continues to command the attention of scholars, policymakers, and the international community at large.