Improving COVID-19 vaccination centre operation through computer modelling and simulation

ABSTRACT

Mass vaccination has provided a route out of the COVID-19 pandemic in a way that social restrictions can be safely eased. For many countries, dedicated vaccination centres have been key to that effort. However, with no directly comparable historical experience there has been little information to guide the operational management and initial configuration of these sites. This paper provides an account of how, early in the mass vaccination effort, Operational Research has been a valuable asset in supporting management decisions at two major vaccination centres in the UK. We first describe a conceptual pathway model representing the key stages of the vaccination process, from registration to clinical assessment, vaccination, and observation. An approximation using discrete event simulation is then presented. On application, we report on its use in influencing the initial setup of one site, with model outputs directly setting the daily number of patient bookings. For the same site, we reveal how analysis has informed a significant operational shift in combining two key activities on the vaccination pathway (clinical assessment and vaccination). Finally, we describe how, at a second site, modelling has examined pathway stability, in terms of resilience to unforeseen “shocks” such as delayed arrivals and staff unavailability.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19
• Coronavirus
• mass vaccination
• vaccination centre
• simulation modelling

Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the contributions of Hannah Bailey, Karen Evans, Lucy Harries, Elizabeth Luckett, Anne Morris, Richard Rees, Mark Sanger, Trevor Shippey, Alex Thompson and Hayley Ware. The authors are also grateful to the anonymous reviewers, whose helpful suggestions have improved the quality and legibility of this article.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/20476965.2024.2339817

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by The Health Foundation (UK), through the Evidence into Practice programme.